The United States fears foreign interference in the next presidential election. But not from Russia or China - but from Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is being accused of pursuing policies that increasingly run counter to the interests of the United States - and especially the Biden administration.

The latest two decisions by OPEC+ to cut oil production have shocked many in Washington. The United States is also very negative about the desire of Saudi Arabia to switch to trading in yuan. But Washington's opportunities to influence the policy of Riyadh are now limited. Saudi oil flows now mainly go to Asia - China and India. And for the first time in modern history, the West does not have a single loyal state among the main members of OPEC.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia still has unique leverage on the United States. According to various estimates, an increase in the cost of oil by $ 5 leads to an increase in inflation in America by 0.2%. And Riyadh has the ability to skillfully manipulate this - influencing the situation inside the United States.

For example, last fall, OPEC+ announced a reduction in oil production on the very eve of congressional elections. This caused a surge in gas prices, a drop in Biden's ratings - and helped the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives.

Now market expectations are such that the price of oil will fluctuate in the range of 80-90 dollars per barrel for another year. However, in the case of new decisions to reduce production, the price of oil by mid-2024 can jump up to $120. This will cause another round of inflation in the United States - and may well decide the outcome of the presidential election, ensuring the victory of Trump and the Republicans - with whom Riyadh is much easier to negotiate.